東大先端研創発戦略研究オープンラボ（ROLES）は、2025年2月19日に、エストニアを代表する外交・安全保障シンクタンクである、国際防衛安全保障センター（ICDS）のクリスティ・ライク所長を東大先端研に迎え、非公開・招待制のラウンドテーブルを開催しました。プログラムと概要は下記の通りです。

ROLES-ICDS Roundtable in Tokyo

Gray Zones at the Sea: Common Threats and Areas of Cooperation between Japan and Estonia in the Regional and Global Contexts

Date and Time: Feb. 19, 2025, 10:00-12:30AM (Tokyo Time)

Venue: Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology (RCAST) of the University of Tokyo, Building 3, Mezzanine Level, Seminar Room 1

Language: English [Without Interpretation]

Participation: By Invitation

Format: In Person

Timetable:

09:30-10:00 Registration

 

10:00-10:10: Opening Remarks: 

Satoshi IKEUCHI, Founding Chair of the RCAST Open Laboratory for Emergence Strategies (ROLES), and Professor of Religion and Global Security at RCAST of the University of Tokyo

Atsuko HIGASHINO, Professor in the Faculty of International Studies, University of Tsukuba, and Head of the CEECs Study Group at the ROLES of the University of Tokyo

10:10-10:40 Keynote Speech: 

"Security in the Baltic Sea and Protection of Undersea Infrastructure"

Dr Kristi Raik, Director, International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS)

10:40-11:00 Guest Speech: 

"In Defense of the Submarine Communications Cable: A Global Common Cause"

Motohiro TSUCHIYA, Vice-President for Global Engagement and Information Technology at Keio University, and Professor at Keio University Graduate School of Media and Governance

11:00-11:40 Expert Analyses

“Underwater Superiority Means Sea Control”
Keizo KITAGAWA (Ph.D., Captain, JMSDF (Ret)), Head and Chief Strategist of K2 Connect International; Associate Fellow of RUSI; Senior Research Fellow of YCAPS; Former Dean of Strategic Studies Department of Japan Maritime-Self Defense Force (JMSDF) Command and Staff College

"China's Maritime Activities at the East China Sea and Taiwan Straits"
Shin KAWASHIMA, Professor of the Department of International Relations, the Graduate School of Arts & Sciences, The University of Tokyo

”Estimating Political Implications of the Subsea Power Cable Sabotage in the Baltic States”

Ryo NAKAI, Professor of Comparative Political Dynamics at RCAST of the University of Tokyo

“Russian Pacific Fleet Redux: Russia's CUI Espionage/Sabotage Capability and Japan's Security"

Yu KOIZUMI Associate Professor for International Security Studies at RCAST of the University of Tokyo

11:40-12:30 Discussions: 

Tsuyoshi GOROKU, Associate Professor of International Relations, Nishogakusha University

Hiroyuki KOBAYASHI, Project Researcher at RCAST of the University of Tokyo

Yoshihisa NISHIYAMA, Project Research Associate at RCAST of the University of Tokyo 

Participants from Ministries and Embassies: 

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan

National Security Secretariat of the Cabinet Secretariat of Japan

Embassy of Estonia in Japan

Embassies of EU countries in Japan

Abstract: 

There has never been a time when the consultation and coordination between Japan and Europe's security has been more necessary. Is there any solution at hand for the Russo-Ukrainian war in line with norms and principles of the post-WWII international order? How can we navigate the upheaval in the Transatlantic alliance? Uncertainty surrounding China's future course and the whereabouts of US-China rivalry leaves others in a state of confusion. 

On this rare occasion welcoming Dr Kristi Raik, Director of the International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS), participants consider security challenges faced by Japan and Estonia in their respective regions in the global context and then explore the possibilities for cooperation and common ground.

One of those issues specifically chosen and highlighted in this roundtable is the security of the sea, particularly of the critical infrastructure on the seabed. What is the cause of the frequent cut and disconnections of submarine power and communication cables in recent years, both in the Baltic Sea and East China Sea including area around Taiwan? What can we do to ensure the security of undersea infrastructure so crucial in civilian and military purposes? On this particular topic, we have invited speakers who tackles with this issue from various expertise. 

We'd also like to discuss a broader range of topics and outstanding issues. The turmoil caused by the second Trump administration has disrupted the transatlantic relations. There seems to be wild wind gusts at sea which rock and capsize the ships of the western countries, causing divergence rather than convergence of alliances. In this context, discussion will consider the fate of the Atlantic alliance and the prospects for cooperation between Europe and the Indo-Pacific region and so on.