Russia's invasion of Ukraine painfully demonstrated that large-scale interstate wars continue to be a real threat in the 21st century. The purpose of this working group is to synthesize the findings of area and security studies to explore the reasons why this war occurred, whether it could have been prevented, and what implications it has for Japan's national security in the future.

This working group will examine the state of Eurasian authoritarian regimes, with focus on China. Particular emphasis will be placed on observing and analyzing not only individual countries and regions but also the relationships among those countries and regions. In addition, the Southeast Asia Research Unit within the group will look at the complex dynamics of that subregion that cannot be explained solely by great power politics, such as U.S.-China confrontation and Sino-Russian cooperation.

The Middle East and the Islamic world are facing turbulence due to the spread of extremism, notably led by the Islamic State; territorial domination by tribes, regions, and ethnic groups; attempts to reorganize the regional order led by regional powers Iran and Turkey; and the formation of an  Israel-Saudi Arabia axis.This working group will examine these themes and how they are contributing to the formation of a new order in the Middle East and Islamic world.

The security environment continues to change rapidly. While large-scale wars between states, as exemplified by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, remain a classic threat that persists  in the 21st century, the  methods and technologies used in such wars have changed drastically from those of the past. This working group will bring together researchers and practitioners from various disciplines to discuss the expected trends in the security environment over the next decade.

With the revision of the National Security Strategy in 2022, the information and cognitive domains have been officially recognized as areas critical to Japan’s security. However, efforts to date remain insufficient. While Japan's information space has been protected by language barriers, the development of AI has the potential to drastically change this situation. In addition, excessive regulation of the information and cognitive domains could lead to the highly undesirable situation of controlling speech and thought, undermining the democratic nature of society that security policies are supposed to protect. Under these complicated circumstances, this working group aims to grasp the latest research trends in information and cognitive security, and offer concrete policy recommendations.

Bringing together members of the “Background, Outlook, and Consequences of the Russia-Ukraine War” Working Group, other working group participants, and security practitioners, this group will conduct tabletop exercises that explore Japan’s security in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Greater Central Asia (GCA) faces numerous security challenges in areas such as the environment, energy, maritime, terrorism, and cyber. China’s increasing presence in the region through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) adds further complexity to these issues. This working group will promote research based on the regional concept of GCA, focusing on the intersections of these security challenges.

In cooperation with research institutions and researchers in conflict zones and relevant countries in the Middle East and Africa, this study group will discuss new approaches to resolving civil wars and regional conflicts and present recommendations to the Japanese and relevant governments.

Purpose The “Theory and Practice of Conflict Resolution” (TPCR) study group will assess the current situation of the theory and practice of conflict resolution by examining various armed conflicts in the contemporary world, ranging from Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. It will take into consideration the linkage between Euro-Atlantic security and Indo-Pacific security, while examining the structural tensions in the contemporary world. The TPCR Study Group will seek to propose new solutions that contribute to conflict resolution and peacebuilding. Theories of conflict resolution, including conflict analysis, mediation, state-building, and peacebuilding, have significantly developed since the end of the Cold War. This development coincided with advancements in policy practices of conflict resolution through military intervention, international peace operations, development, and humanitarian aid. However, the nature of armed conflicts has changed so much for various reasons including the advent of the age of the Global War on Terror. Many ongoing contemporary armed conflicts including the Russo-Ukraine War and the Crisis over Gaza are also posing many challenges to existing theories of conflict resolution. The significant phenomenon of international intra-state conflicts impels us to develop our understanding of armed conflicts. The TPCR Study Group thus examines how new theoretical frameworks can be developed to better reflect the complex reality of contemporary armed conflicts. Practices of conflict resolution, represented by international peace operations, are undergoing drastic changes. While UN peacekeeping missions remain a significant tool, they are no longer exclusively dominant, as there has been a significant reduction in budget and personnel. Various non-UN peace operations, composed of (sub-)regional organizations as well as ad-hoc coalitions of like-minded states, have been frequently established over the last three decades. These partnerships take various forms, and there is a growing need to link conflict resolution operations with international security measures in the age of international intra-state wars, the War on Terror and superpower rivalry. The TPCR Study Group also seeks to identify clues to develop new policies for international peace operations in the changing reality of the world. The first major focus of the TPCR Study Group is the prospects and possibilities of conflict resolution as well as long-term reconstruction plans for Ukraine. The overall structural perspective of the TPCR Study Group is to theorize the linkage between the Indo-Pacific and the Euro-Atlantic and explore new practices of conflict resolution in these regions. The TPCR Study Group will also discuss cases in Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and East Asia and remain active for at least three years.Activities 1. Regular Monthly Meetings: We hold regular monthly meetings. For the time being, we continue to concentrate upon Ukraine-related issues with core regular members online. The results of our discussions will be presented at the time of public conferences, ROLES Commentaries, ROLES Review, etc. 2. Occasional Topical Meeting: We will discuss contemporary armed conflicts as well as conflict resolution policies in theory and practice by holding occasional topical meetings, which take place in irregular manners. We shall focus on the seasonal topics in accordance with the development of events in the contemporary world.3. Ad-hoc Overseas Meetings: We will hold meetings outside of Japan by utilizing our partnership with overseas institutions.  We shall discuss structural tensions in the contemporary world with special reference to the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) and its relevance to conflict resolution with overseas institutions which share the same interest.Agendas 1. What are the conditions for ending the Russo-Ukraine War? While considering theories such as W. Zartman’s “ripeness,” the TPCR Study Group will explore and examine the conditions for conflict resolution in Ukraine from both theoretical and policy perspectives. Specifically, we will focus on the importance of “deterrence” mechanisms and scrutinize policy issues related to schemes for “security guarantees” that supporting countries like Japan can provide.2. Many of the armed conflicts occurring in the contemporary world have elements of both international conflicts and intra-state conflicts, which can be called “international intra-state wars.” Typical examples include the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. In fact, few wars exist solely as either international or domestic conflicts. Theoretical frameworks for conflict resolution based on an artificial distinction between international and intra-state armed conflicts cannot address the realities of the 21st century. With this awareness, the TPCR Study Group will analyze various cases of armed conflict in war-prone areas from the Middle East to Africa. The manners of Japan’s involvement through policies for peace contributions in each case will also become significant policy agendas.3. Structural tensions in the contemporary world not only influence current individual armed conflicts but also exist as potential causes of future armed conflicts. The structural conflicts between super-powers such as the US and China, tensions between industrialized nations represented by the G7 and emerging nations represented by BRICS, and the clash between Western countries advocating for a liberal international order and non-Western countries pursuing a refresh of the international order led by the Global South are predicted to further intensify. While emphasizing the perspective of “Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP)” advocated by Japanese diplomacy, the TPCR Study Group will analyze structural conflicts in the contemporary world and explore the direction of desirable diplomatic policies.Members(Regular Members)Hideaki Shinoda (Chair) | Professor of Graduate School of Global Studies, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies (TUFS); Visiting Senior Research Fellow of ROLES, RCAST, University of TokyoTomonori Yoshizaki | Professor of Graduate School of Global Studies, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies (TUFS)Fedorchenko-Kutuyev Pavlo | Professor of Sociology and Sociology Department Chair, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute (KPI)Anna Mykolayivna Ishchenko | Senior Lecturer and Deputy Dean of FSP for international activities, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute (KPI)Olena Akimova Kasatnika | Docent and Acting Dean of the Faculty of Sociology and Law, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute (KPI)Iurii Perga | Associate Professor and Vice-Dean for Research and Innovation, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute (KPI)Philip Setler-Jones | Senior Research Fellow for Indo-Pacific Security, Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)(Adjunct Members)Yoshihiko Okabe | Professor, Faculty of Economics, Kobe Gakuin University; President, Japanese Association for Ukrainian StudiesAtsuko Higashino | Professor, Graduate School of Business Sciences, Humanities and Social Sciences, Tsukuba University; Vice-President, Japanese Association for Ukrainian StudiesMichito Tsuruoka | Associate Professor, Faculty of Policy Management, Keio University PublicationsROLES Commentary No.28: Abdifatah Aden Abdi, "Somalia's Perspective on the Free and Open Indo-Pacific: A Path to Peace and Conflict Resolution"ROLES Commentary No.27: Philip Shetler Jones, "A common problem of status quo vs. revolutionary foreign policies narrows the scope for conflict resolution in the Indo-Pacific and the Euro-Atlantic"ROLES Working Papers [日本語版] オレナ・アキモヴァ、イウリイ・ペルガ、アンナ・イシュチェンコ 「紛争地域における地域（コミュニティ）レジリエンス：紛争解決と復興の可能性の要因を探る」ROLES Working Papers [日本語版] 篠田英朗 「紛争解決の理論と実践の批評的な検討：『国際的な国内武力紛争』にはどのようにアプローチすべきか？」ROLES Working Papers: Olena Akimova, Iurii Perga and Anna Ishchenko: "Local (community) Resilience in Conflict zone Regions: in the search for Factors of Conflict resolution and Recovery Potential"ROLES Working Papers: Hideaki Shinoda: "A Critical Examination of Theories and Practices of Conflict Resolution: How do we approach "international intra-state armed conflicts"?"ROLES COMMENTARY No.21 篠田英朗「ガザ危機に直面する日本が追求すべきこと」Conference Papers: 2024.05.22 (Wed.): Hideaki Shinoda: "What Japan Should Pursue in the Face of the Gaza Crisis" コメンタリー：2023.10.14 (土)：ROLES COMMENTARY No.12 ユーリー・ペルガ 「ロシア・ウクライナ戦争の政治的影響の評価」コメンタリー：2023.10.14 (土)：ROLES COMMENTARY No.11 パブロ・フェルドルチェンコ - クトゥエフ／篠田英朗「『ウクライナ戦争』という名称の問題性」Commentary: 2023.10.06 (Fri.): ROLES INSIGHTS No. 2023-4 : Hideaki Shinoda and Pavlo Ferdorchenko- Kutuyev, “The Problematic Nature of the Naming of the ‘Ukraine War’”Commentary: 2023.10.03 (Tue.): ROLES INSIGHTS No.2023-03: Olena Akimova and Anna Ishchenko, “Shifting Trust: Ukrainian Sentiments Towards Social Institutions Before and During War”Commentary: 2023.09.25 (Mon.): ROLES INSIGHTS No.2023-02: Iurii Perga, “Assessment of the Political Impact of the Russo-Ukraine War”

This study group will examine ways for Japan to actively participate in forming the international energy order. The group will attempt to understand the conditions Japan finds itself in the international energy order that is shaped by both the competition for technology development and standardization toward decarbonization, market trends in various countries and regions, and geopolitical factors such as the situation in the Middle East and Africa and the war in Russia and Ukraine.

This study group will examine the role of Japan’s diplomacy in the current state of international affairs. In this era of "interstate competition" between major countries and advanced nations, especially the West and authoritarian states such as China and Russia, what kind of ideological underpinnings should Japan base its diplomacy on? This study group will examine Japan's historical developments and the nature of its value-oriented diplomacy.

This study group will bring together researchers from Asia, Western and Eastern Europe (including Russia) and North America to focus on themes of religion, including religion in contemporary Japanese society. The group aims to understand various issues in the international community that have religious underpinnings, and communicate internationally about the values of contemporary Japanese society.

Religion serves as the foundation supporting the basic ideas of societies, and is worth examining to better understand states’ behaviors. This study group will include scholars of Judaism, Christianity, and Islam, in addition to Japanese Buddhist monks and Shinto priests, to analyze these factors and linkages. Further, by relativizing Japanese religious thought and disseminating it abroad,Japan can be better understood by the international community.

This study will focus on the politics and diplomacy of major "Western" states. Currently, developed states that adhere to Western-promoted universal values such as freedom, democracy, respect for fundamental human rights, and the rule of law are facing internal political and social upheaval as well as external threats from authoritarian states such as China and Russia. This study group will discuss and disseminate policy recommendations for  Western-oriented developed countries facing such situations.

This sub-group is part of the "Indo-Pacific Security" International Study Group and brings together experts from various countries to discuss international security issues in the context of the SDGs. Focusing on infectious diseases, poverty, discrimination, environmental pollution, and climate change, the study group will discuss the links between the environment and human security, energy security, resources and supply chains, and interstate conflicts.

This group examines the possibility of confidence-building and security  dialogues in Asia. 2025 marks the 50th anniversary of the Helsinki Final Act of the CSCE Helsinki Summit in 1975. It is about time to start thinking about similar inclusive security dialogue mechanisms in Asia.

This sub-group is part of the "Indo-Pacific Security" International Study Group and brings together experts from various countries to discuss the threats and vulnerabilities to maritime and transportation systems. Focusing specifically on the theme of a free and open Indo-Pacific, the group will conduct discussions and tabletop exercises to analyze threats posed by military, terrorist, and criminal organizations; the mutual impact of non-traditional security issues; and security problems created by intermodal transport systems.

This study group will bring together experts from various countries to examine the developments and issues in the Indo-Pacific security environment. The group will cover a wide range of areas including: defense; maritime and transport security; environmental and human security; new and emerging technologies and economic security.  The study group consists of four subgroups: "Security and Defense Strategy"; "Maritime and Transportation Security"; "SDGs and Diplomatic Strategies"; and “New and Emerging Technologies”.

This sub-group is part of the "Indo-Pacific Security" International Study Group and brings together experts from various countries to discuss the impact of new and emerging technologies in the Indo-Pacific region. In particular, the group will look at how new technologies create opportunities but also issues from the economic security standpoint and also national industries, as well as impact interstate relations region.

This sub-group is part of the "Indo-Pacific Security" International Study Group and brings together experts from various countries to examine recent developments in defense strategies and trends in the Indo-Pacific. In particular, the group will conduct discussions and tabletop exercises to analyze how emerging technologies and new operational concepts, hybrid warfare, and developments in the land, sea, air, space, cyber, electromagnetic, and cognitive domains are causing transformations in regional military affairs. The group will also discuss how Japan should respond to these changes.

In recent years, the internal dynamics of liberal democratic states have been in turmoil. This working group will delve into the political and social disruptions of liberal democracies who support the so-called "liberal international order" with particular attention to U.S. politics and the American presidential election given its  significant implications for global politics. Analysis will extend to how the disruptions within liberal democracies affect alliance relations.

Advancements in information and communication technology (ICT), and the influence of the Internet, especially Social Network Services and video sites, are ever increasing. This task force will closely examine the “cognitive domain” with particular focus on  both ICT and artificial intelligence.

This working group will collect, compile, and publish historical materials while examining the state of postwar Japanese politics and diplomacy as a free and democratic nation. In particular, the group will focus on Japan's return to the international community in the 1950s, and analyze how Japan developed its political, diplomatic, and security policies.

To understand and think about the current state and future of liberal democracies, it is essential to analyze the circumstances in each country, as well as  its institutions and principles. The purpose of this working group is to empirically analyze democratic institutions from various perspectives. Through quantitative and comparative political analysis, this task force seeks to understand these states’ by examining the condition of their democratic systems.

As the competition and conflicts between liberal democracies and authoritarian states deepen, one of the key issues are democratic states that have illiberal elements. This working group will analyze the trends of these non-liberal democracies in the African, Middle Eastern, and Southeast Asian regions.

Currently, Central and Eastern Europe and the Balkans are undergoing a major turning point due to external factors such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and internal developments such as transformations in their democratic regimes. This task force will closely monitor and study trends in the foreign policies and domestic regimes of the Central and Eastern European and Balkan countries.

Jointly organized by ROLES (RCAST Open Laboratory for Emergence Strategies) and IGSDA (Institute for Global Security and Defense Affairs, Abu Dhabi and Cairo)

Online Special Lecture: The Comparative Study of the Abrahamic Religions: Heuristic Gains and Cognitive PitfallsDate: Friday, March 5, 2021Time: 16:00-17:30 JST (9:00-10:30 IST (UTC+2))

[This Intensive Lecture is postponed]  The Hebrew Bible: Topics in Modern ResearchDates: February 6-9, 2022Venue: Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, the University of TokyoReligion and Global Security Division Meeting RoomLecturer: Dr. Naphtali Shmuel Meshel (Department of Bible and the Department of Comparative Religion at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem)Details can be found here.