Russia's invasion of Ukraine painfully demonstrated that large-scale interstate wars continue to be a real threat in the 21st century. The purpose of this working group is to synthesize the findings of area and security studies to explore the reasons why this war occurred, whether it could have been prevented, and what implications it has for Japan's national security in the future.

This working group will examine the state of Eurasian authoritarian regimes, with focus on China. Particular emphasis will be placed on observing and analyzing not only individual countries and regions but also the relationships among those countries and regions. In addition, the Southeast Asia Research Unit within the group will look at the complex dynamics of that subregion that cannot be explained solely by great power politics, such as U.S.-China confrontation and Sino-Russian cooperation.

The Middle East and the Islamic world are facing turbulence due to the spread of extremism, notably led by the Islamic State; territorial domination by tribes, regions, and ethnic groups; attempts to reorganize the regional order led by regional powers Iran and Turkey; and the formation of an  Israel-Saudi Arabia axis.This working group will examine these themes and how they are contributing to the formation of a new order in the Middle East and Islamic world.

The security environment continues to change rapidly. While large-scale wars between states, as exemplified by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, remain a classic threat that persists  in the 21st century, the  methods and technologies used in such wars have changed drastically from those of the past. This working group will bring together researchers and practitioners from various disciplines to discuss the expected trends in the security environment over the next decade.

With the revision of the National Security Strategy in 2022, the information and cognitive domains have been officially recognized as areas critical to Japan’s security. However, efforts to date remain insufficient. While Japan's information space has been protected by language barriers, the development of AI has the potential to drastically change this situation. In addition, excessive regulation of the information and cognitive domains could lead to the highly undesirable situation of controlling speech and thought, undermining the democratic nature of society that security policies are supposed to protect. Under these complicated circumstances, this working group aims to grasp the latest research trends in information and cognitive security, and offer concrete policy recommendations.

Bringing together members of the “Background, Outlook, and Consequences of the Russia-Ukraine War” Working Group, other working group participants, and security practitioners, this group will conduct tabletop exercises that explore Japan’s security in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Greater Central Asia (GCA) faces numerous security challenges in areas such as the environment, energy, maritime, terrorism, and cyber. China’s increasing presence in the region through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) adds further complexity to these issues. This working group will promote research based on the regional concept of GCA, focusing on the intersections of these security challenges.

ROLES actively proposes interdisciplinary and cross-cutting joint research, utilizing the intellectual resources of researchers from a wide range of fields at the University of Tokyo and the Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology.

“Advanced Science and Technology and Security” focuses on the impact of the development of advanced science and technology on diplomacy, security and research in these fields.

This laboratory-interfacuty research group is comprised of natural scientists, advanced technology engineers, scholars on social/human sciences, focusing on the impact of emerging science and technology on diplomacy and security. It is also promoting security research using new technologies and tools, and is attempting to actively share the results of the research with society.

ROLES is participating in joint research projects that are constantly being conducted both within and outside the University of Tokyo, and is experimenting with interdisciplinary and cross-disciplinary research on diplomacy and security.

Four focus areas are highlighted. 

(1) Data Visualization of International Conflicts

(2) War and Peace as Changed by Robotics, Virtual Reality, and Augmented Reality

(3) Fake News and International Public Opinion

(4) Is AI a Game Changer?

(1) Data Visualization of International Conflicts

ROLES collaborates with the laboratory of Professor Hidenori Watanave of the Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies and Graduate School of Interdisciplinary Information Studies (III/GSII) to devise and present a new style of research on diplomacy and security that comprehensively grasps and utilizes geospatial information.

We will propose methods and examples of “visualization” of the damage caused by the Russo-Ukrainian War and the Gaza conflict, the impact of natural disasters such as the Turkey-Syria earthquake in February 2023, and historical events in diplomacy, security, and international relations, using satellite images, old maps, and historical photographs, as well as big data and machine learning.

(2)  Robotics, Virtual Reality, and Augmented Reality Changing War and Peace 

ROLES will work with Professor Masahiko Inami (body informatics, body augmentation engineering, flexible technology, gamification, entertainment engineering) and Associate Professor Yasuaki Monnai (body informatics, high-frequency engineering) of the University of Tokyo's Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology  (RCAST) to develop a cross-disciplinary approach to understanding the impact of robotics, virtual reality and augmented reality on diplomacy and security.

ロボティクスと安全保障

(3) Fake News and International Public Opinion

ROLES members are actively engagning with public debates in SNS and interactively making research on the impact of fake news on international security and diplomacy. New tools and technologies of systematically analyzing the information sphere are tested and introduced in cooperation with researchers and engineers in the field of computational social science. 

(4) Is AI a game changer?

ROLES has co-organized with TRENDS Research & Advisory of Abu Dhabi, UAE a two-day conference "Sustainable Security in 2024 and Beyond − The Role of AI" in September 2024 at the RCAST Campus of the University of Tokyo.