Russia's invasion of Ukraine painfully demonstrated that large-scale interstate wars continue to be a real threat in the 21st century. The purpose of this working group is to synthesize the findings of area and security studies to explore the reasons why this war occurred, whether it could have been prevented, and what implications it has for Japan's national security in the future.

This working group will examine the state of Eurasian authoritarian regimes, with focus on China. Particular emphasis will be placed on observing and analyzing not only individual countries and regions but also the relationships among those countries and regions. In addition, the Southeast Asia Research Unit within the group will look at the complex dynamics of that subregion that cannot be explained solely by great power politics, such as U.S.-China confrontation and Sino-Russian cooperation.

The Middle East and the Islamic world are facing turbulence due to the spread of extremism, notably led by the Islamic State; territorial domination by tribes, regions, and ethnic groups; attempts to reorganize the regional order led by regional powers Iran and Turkey; and the formation of an  Israel-Saudi Arabia axis.This working group will examine these themes and how they are contributing to the formation of a new order in the Middle East and Islamic world.

The security environment continues to change rapidly. While large-scale wars between states, as exemplified by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, remain a classic threat that persists  in the 21st century, the  methods and technologies used in such wars have changed drastically from those of the past. This working group will bring together researchers and practitioners from various disciplines to discuss the expected trends in the security environment over the next decade.

With the revision of the National Security Strategy in 2022, the information and cognitive domains have been officially recognized as areas critical to Japan’s security. However, efforts to date remain insufficient. While Japan's information space has been protected by language barriers, the development of AI has the potential to drastically change this situation. In addition, excessive regulation of the information and cognitive domains could lead to the highly undesirable situation of controlling speech and thought, undermining the democratic nature of society that security policies are supposed to protect. Under these complicated circumstances, this working group aims to grasp the latest research trends in information and cognitive security, and offer concrete policy recommendations.

Bringing together members of the “Background, Outlook, and Consequences of the Russia-Ukraine War” Working Group, other working group participants, and security practitioners, this group will conduct tabletop exercises that explore Japan’s security in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Greater Central Asia (GCA) faces numerous security challenges in areas such as the environment, energy, maritime, terrorism, and cyber. China’s increasing presence in the region through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) adds further complexity to these issues. This working group will promote research based on the regional concept of GCA, focusing on the intersections of these security challenges.