Koki Shigenoi, Visiting Researcher at ROLES, published an essay titled “Does Tehran Dream of a ‘Pax Iranica’?: International Order after the Iran War” in Shincho QUE on May 24, 2026.

Taking stock of the situation as of May 24, the essay examines the possibility that U.S.–Iran negotiations may move toward an agreement not through a decisive American military victory, but through a set of U.S. concessions. It focuses in particular on a potential settlement in which Washington secures limited gains on the nuclear issue while tacitly accepting Iran’s missile capabilities, proxy networks, and influence over the Strait of Hormuz.

The essay also analyzes the possibility that Iran may obtain substantial economic benefits through the negotiations, including sanctions relief, the release of frozen assets, and the restoration of oil exports and financial transactions. Under such conditions, Iran could emerge from the war not merely as a damaged state that has survived, but as a militarily and economically strengthened power with an enhanced position in the regional order.

The central question of the essay is not whether Iran will dominate the Middle East, but whether the Middle East can still be governed without Iran. What may emerge in the near future is unlikely to be a stable “Pax Iranica.” A more realistic scenario is not that Iran becomes an imperial hegemon actively governing the region, but that it becomes a major power capable of making any regional order impossible without its participation, while also exercising geoeconomic influence.

A key focus of the essay is the potential institutionalization of Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. In this scenario, the Strait would no longer be sustained solely by a U.S.-led order of freedom of navigation. Rather, it could become a maritime space in which Iran is able to set a political price on passage. By selectively determining which vessels are allowed to pass and which are subjected to pressure, Iran could transform maritime traffic and energy flows into instruments of negotiation.

The essay thus considers the rise of an order-maker whose power rests on the capacity to disrupt order. This would not be a cooperative order, nor would it amount to a stable peace. It would instead be an order in which instability itself becomes a bargaining resource. In international politics, hegemony does not always rest on the provision of order. At times, the capacity to disrupt order can itself become a source of leverage. The essay argues that this is precisely the kind of power Iran may be acquiring.

The full essay is available (in Japanese) at the link below:

[How Long Will the Iran War Last? 4] Does Tehran Dream of a “Pax Iranica”?: International Order after the Iran War
https://que.dailyshincho.jp/node/18561/