Koki Shigenoi, Visiting Researcher at ROLES, published an essay titled “Scenarios Seen through the Constraints of the United States, Israel, and Iran” in Foresight on March 4, 2026.

The essay analyzes possible scenarios for the Iran War, which began with U.S.–Israeli strikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, by focusing on the constraints that shape the war’s likely trajectory. Rather than examining the intentions or rhetoric of political leaders, the essay highlights three key factors: the attrition of missiles and interceptors, the legal and institutional limits on the duration of U.S. military operations, and the external pressure generated by the war’s impact on the global economy.

From the U.S. perspective, the essay argues that the baseline scenario may be a campaign lasting two to four weeks, or at most roughly two months. This estimate reflects not only the pace at which the United States is consuming cruise missiles and precision-guided munitions, but also the limited stockpiles of missile defense systems such as THAAD and SM-3. The essay also points to the institutional constraints imposed by the War Powers Resolution, which gives Washington an incentive to create a plausible path to success within a limited time frame and then move toward a ceasefire.

From Israel’s perspective, however, the logic of endurance is different. If Israel secures air superiority and succeeds in significantly degrading Iran’s missile stockpiles and production capacity, the pressure created by interceptor shortages may diminish. In that case, Israel would have a stronger incentive to continue operations, not only against Iran’s military and regime capabilities, but also against its economic foundations and critical infrastructure.

From Iran’s perspective, the objective is not to achieve a conventional military victory over the United States or Israel. Rather, Iran’s strategy is to externalize the costs of war across the Middle East and the global economy, thereby generating international pressure that could constrain U.S. and Israeli operations. The essay argues that Iran may be shifting its targets toward energy facilities in the Gulf states, airports, civilian infrastructure, and the Strait of Hormuz in order to use global economic disruption as a means of restraining Israel.

The essay also examines the strategic trade-off facing Iran. If Iran uses its missiles and drones intensively in order to create maximum disruption in the short term, it risks rapidly depleting its remaining capabilities. If it slows the pace of attacks in order to preserve its forces, however, the disruptive effect on the global economy may decline. Iran therefore faces a difficult choice between creating maximum disruption in the short term and sustaining pressure over a longer period.

The essay concludes that both the United States and Iran have incentives to seek an exit relatively early due to military, institutional, and capability constraints. Israel, by contrast, may have stronger incentives to continue operations if it can expand its military advantage. To assess the future course of the war, the essay argues that it will be necessary to monitor Iran’s missile-launch tempo, the degradation of its missile stockpiles and production sites, signs of replenishment or redeployment of U.S.–Israeli interceptors, the condition of Gulf energy production and commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and reactions in the U.S. Congress and public opinion.

The full essay is available (in Japanese) below:

[How Long Will the Iran War Last?] Scenarios Seen through the Constraints of the United States, Israel, and Iran
https://que.dailyshincho.jp/node/17062/