Koki Shigenoi, Visiting Member of ROLES, appeared on BS TV Tokyo’s NIKKEI NEWS NEXT, broadcast on April 24, 2026, to provide analysis on the Iran War and the ongoing U.S.–Iran ceasefire negotiations.

The program examined why the ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran had stalled, focusing on the fundamental incompatibility between the conditions presented by the two sides. Shigenoi explained that Washington has demanded that Iran halt uranium enrichment, renounce nuclear weapons, restrict its ballistic missile program, end support for proxy forces, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran, by contrast, has called for an end to U.S. and Israeli attacks and targeted killings, international guarantees and mechanisms to prevent the resumption of war—including the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Middle East—compensation for war damages, an end to attacks on Iran-aligned forces, and recognition of Iran’s sovereign role in the Strait of Hormuz.

Shigenoi argued that the structure of the negotiations makes an agreement difficult unless one side makes major concessions. He noted, however, that Iran is unlikely to make such concessions. For Tehran, its missile capabilities, regional networks, and influence over the Strait of Hormuz are not merely bargaining chips, but core components of its deterrence against future attacks.

He also pointed to the rise of conservative hardliners within the Iranian regime as one reason Iran is unlikely to compromise. Following the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei is said to have assumed the position of Supreme Leader, while conservative hardliners in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the clerical establishment, and the political elite have gained influence. Shigenoi further noted that Mojtaba Khamenei is believed to have close ties with the second and third generations of the Revolutionary Guard, whose outlook is often described as more hardline.

Against this background, Shigenoi explained that the Iranian regime itself appears to be moving in a direction that leaves little room for compromise. With Tehran assessing the current military situation as relatively favorable, Iran is likely to enter negotiations with a firm posture rather than accepting the terms demanded by the United States.

The program also discussed how the strategic constraints facing the United States, Israel, and Iran will shape the future course of the war. Whether the negotiations move toward compromise, a protracted war of attrition, or renewed escalation will remain a key question for the Middle East and the global economy.